Revenue truth, before it gets priced into the deal

The read that tells you whether the customer base will hold up, before you price the deal.

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A behavioural diagnostic of customer-base health, delivered in five days from clean data. The Health Check gives PE deal teams a decision-useful read on revenue quality - before formal processes begin.

Before you commission six weeks of CDD, get five days of full-data customer base evidence. If the base is healthy, you proceed with confidence. If it is not, you save the CDD spend and the deal team time.

The Problem This Solves

Five days to decision-useful data

Most deal flow filters rely on management accounts, the CIM and a handful of commercial conversations. None of these tells the deal team whether the customer base is healthy or quietly eroding.

The Health Check answers that question in five days, on full transaction data, before the deal team commits the much larger budget that formal CDD requires.

The Output

What the Health Check surfaces

Revenue dependency

Which customers the revenue is actually resting on, and whether the base is structured around a durable core or a vulnerable concentration.

Base resilience

How that dependency is distributed, and the difference between a base that can absorb pressure and one that cannot.

Acquisition cohort quality

Whether recent customer growth is coming in at high or low value relative to the existing base.

Revenue durability indicators

The proportion of revenue that is structurally supported versus already at risk.

Revenue composition

What percentage of revenue comes from improving, stable, and deteriorating customer segments.

Trajectory

A directional read on whether the base is strengthening or weakening.

Investment implication

The single most important implication for the investment thesis.

Format: Structured written report with visualisations. Presented in a 60-minute walkthrough with the deal team.

When to commission

1. Pre-deal screening

You have identified a target. The customer base is central to the investment thesis - ecommerce, subscription, consumer, financial services, retail. You need a quick, evidence-based read before committing to formal processes.

2. Specialist layer within broader advisory

You are leading a broader advisory engagement and the customer-base question requires specialist behavioural depth that sits outside your team's methodology.

Product summary

Price

Scoped to complexity and data volume

Duration

Five days from clean data to delivery

Deal moment

Initial screening (deal flow filter), or specialist layer within formal CDD

Output

Behavioural diagnostic of the current health of the target’s customer base. Decision-useful read on whether to commit further deal resource. No financial value attached.

Data required

Anonymised transaction extract. No PII.

Presentation

60-minute deal team walkthrough included.

FAQs

We need 12 or more months of anonymised, individual-level transaction data - typically extracted from the target company's CRM, ecommerce platform, or billing system. We provide a data specification template at the scoping stage.

Most advisory processes model the customer base using averages, assumed probability distributions, or survey-based proxies. The Health Check uses observed behavioural data at the individual customer level - actual purchasing frequency, spend, breadth, and recency - to segment the base by what customers are doing, not what models predict they should do.

Yes. If transaction-level data is available in the data room, we can scope directly from it. If not, we work with the target company via the deal team or advisory lead to extract what is needed.

The Health Check is most relevant for businesses where the customer base is the central revenue driver: ecommerce, subscription, streaming, loyalty, financial services, and retail.

Timeline depends primarily on data readiness. If clean data is available on day one, delivery within five working days is standard. Accelerated timelines can be discussed at scoping.

How it leads to the Diagnostic

The Health Check is often the first engagement in a longer relationship. If the deal proceeds, the full Customer Base Diagnostic extends the analysis into year-on-year movement tracking, forward scenario projections, and hold-period intelligence. Commission a Health Check during screening, then upgrade to the full Diagnostic once the portfolio company is acquired — using the same data infrastructure and analyst relationship.

Learn about the Customer Base Diagnostic →

Find out how we can help

Five days from clean data to a decision-useful read on revenue quality. Fixed scope. No PII required.

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